For many, it was an event long time in coming, as Zimbabwe witnessed the end of the Robert Mugabe era. The 93 year-old Mugabe had ruled the country since independence in 1980. The chain of events is well-known by now: On November 14th, the military seized control of the country, taking over the state broadcasting and the capital’s main thoroughfares. The official line for the action was to target criminals near Mugabe who were “committing crimes [and] causing social and economic suffering…”
As is well known, Spain has been thrust into a major political crisis following an illegal referendum on independence held in Catalonia on October 1, in which 90% of voters backed the move, although the turnout was just under half the total electorate. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy failed in his effort to persuade the regional government to cancel the referendum, and the unrest triggered by a heavy-handed attempt by security forces to disrupt the vote only stiffened the resolve of Catalonia’s regional president, Carles Puigdemont, to proceed toward a formal declaration of independence.
Political risk analysis, like most other disciplines, evolves. Responding to new stimuli, it moves in different directions, trying to make sense of - or forecast - the events for which it is designed. Early forms of political risk can be traced to trade relations between the Sumer and Indus civilizations of the third millennium BC. The goal of a consideration was for the most part practical: to secure safe passage of goods and return compensation.