A graduate of Queen’s University, Christopher is a former faculty member at the University of British Columbia, and has lectured at various universities including Harvard, American University (DC), and Pepperdine University.
Christopher has addressed audiences from the G20 to GE; from Saudi Arabia to Kazakhstan. Christopher’s most recent book is titled Quid Periculum: Measuring and Managing Risk in an Age of Uncertainty (2021), which he co-authored and edited with Peter Marber (Harvard/Aperture Investors).
In the applied world of international business and risk, during his career Christopher has provided assessments of limited recourse financing projects in the mining and oil and gas
sector in Latin America, designed microfinancing facilities for commercial operators in Egypt and Mexico, and worked as Canada’s private sector development specialist in various emerging markets. Christopher's work with PRS has expanded into the area of sovereign bond trading. PRS' data is now used extensively in the academic literature on the connection between sovereign debt workouts and economic growth.
Christopher and his work with PRS/ICRG have been quoted in a range of publications, including The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and he has appeared on CNBC.
Living and working in over 30 countries over the past two decades, Christopher remains an avid reader, cyclist, guitarist, and composer.
Below are some of the groups whose work that, I feel, has been especially notable over the years and thus deserves special mention.
The weather here in the Lowcountry is clearly displaying signs of spring, with temperatures now consistently in the low to upper 20s. This is always my favorite time of the year, since it ushers in the summer months and brings life to a variety of plant life. Renewal is a constant theme in life.
In any case, I'll be speaking soon with a group of international distillers, including representatives from the likes of Kendall Jackson and Pernod Ricard. I'll be providing a slightly different and data driven slant on some issues of the day, including the growth prospects in Europe, US tensions with China, sovereign debt issues, and some currencies to watch in relation to the USD. I really enjoy speaking with credit professionals since they are intimately involved with the day-to-day issues of international business and have an acute understanding of selling into some very different markets.
Later in March, I'll be at Harvard University, speaking to some students of Dr Peter Marber - my co-author and co-editor of our book, Quid Periculum: Managing and Measuring Political Risk in the Age of Uncertainty (contact PRS at custserv@prsgroup.com for a copy). Peter and I share a great deal in common when it comes to intellectual influences and I always enjoy speaking with his emerging markets class.
Finally, I've decided to put on hold my original plans to fly fish in Ireland for a trip to Rome, the Amalfi Coast, and Tuscany in April. Someone close to me has to see some of the world's most historic places and Italy - and most things Italian, from cars, to music, to instruments - have had a particular hold on me since I first visited the country some 20 years ago. As you know, the following month I will in a cycle race in Montalcino, so that event I wait for eagerly.
PRS recently expanded its trading activities to include more international fixed income securities, as yields in the US and elsewhere have become increasingly attractive and now compare competitively in many ways with equities. This is a welcome event as the past 15 years have been extraordinary in terms of asset values on the back of cheap money.
My flagship data series, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), is always at the forefront of the geopolitical data used by academics and practitioners alike.
As such, we have found a couple of new studies using our data in part to consider the relationship between debt workouts and economic growth, courtesy of the IMF's Working Paper series and a similar line of work by the Bank of Italy - both long-time clients of mine. Thanks to both.
What are some of the implications of sovereign defaults and debt workouts to economic growth and fiscal crises?
1/ Defaults are correlated with contraction of short-term output growth. But those countries with a higher proportion of official debt restructured have experienced higher growth in the long run.
2/ A larger share of debt held by the nonofficial sector is associated with a higher probability of a debtor country running into a fiscal crisis, and that the magnitude of the negative impact is larger at higher debt levels. Moreover, countries with a larger share of debt held by nonresidents are more likely to run into a fiscal crisis, and the magnitude of the estimated positive impact is larger at higher debt levels.
